Files
blackroad-operating-system/services/codex/entries/021-conformal-risk-control.md
Alexa Louise 9644737ba7 feat: Add domain architecture and extract core services from Prism Console
## Domain Architecture
- Complete domain-to-service mapping for 16 verified domains
- Subdomain architecture for blackroad.systems and blackroad.io
- GitHub organization mapping (BlackRoad-OS repos)
- Railway service-to-domain configuration
- DNS configuration templates for Cloudflare

## Extracted Services

### AIops Service (services/aiops/)
- Canary analysis for deployment validation
- Config drift detection
- Event correlation engine
- Auto-remediation with runbook mapping
- SLO budget management

### Analytics Service (services/analytics/)
- Rule-based anomaly detection with safe expression evaluation
- Cohort analysis with multi-metric aggregation
- Decision engine with credit budget constraints
- Narrative report generation

### Codex Governance (services/codex/)
- 82+ governance principles (entries)
- Codex Pantheon with 48+ agent archetypes
- Manifesto defining ethical framework

## Integration Points
- AIops → infra.blackroad.systems (blackroad-os-infra)
- Analytics → core.blackroad.systems (blackroad-os-core)
- Codex → operator.blackroad.systems (blackroad-os-operator)

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-29 13:39:08 -06:00

28 lines
1.2 KiB
Markdown

# Codex 21 — Conformal Risk Control — Errors You Can Budget
**Fingerprint:** `23064887b1469b19fa562e8afdee5e9046bedf99aa9cd7142c35e38f91e6fef2`
## Aim
Guarantee bounded error rates online without assuming a stationary data distribution.
## Core
- Define a nonconformity measure \(s(x)\) and maintain a threshold \(q_\alpha\) such that \(\Pr(s(x_{\text{new}}) \le q_\alpha) \ge 1 - \alpha\).
- Abstain or defer decisions when \(s(x) > q_\alpha\) to keep risk within budget.
- Continuously recalibrate thresholds on sliding windows to track drift.
## Runbook
1. Calibrate nonconformity scores over a recent window and maintain online quantiles.
2. Gate automated actions on conformal acceptance; route abstentions to human or slower control paths.
3. Recalibrate thresholds upon drift alarms or when error audits exceed tolerances.
## Telemetry
- Empirical error rates versus target \(\alpha\).
- Abstain rates and downstream resolution times.
- Calibration lag and drift detection statistics.
## Failsafes
- Increase abstention thresholds when observed error rises.
- Require secondary model agreement or manual oversight before resuming automatic decisions.
**Tagline:** Confidence with math-backed brakes.