Files
blackroad-operating-system/services/codex/entries/021-conformal-risk-control.md
Alexa Louise 9644737ba7 feat: Add domain architecture and extract core services from Prism Console
## Domain Architecture
- Complete domain-to-service mapping for 16 verified domains
- Subdomain architecture for blackroad.systems and blackroad.io
- GitHub organization mapping (BlackRoad-OS repos)
- Railway service-to-domain configuration
- DNS configuration templates for Cloudflare

## Extracted Services

### AIops Service (services/aiops/)
- Canary analysis for deployment validation
- Config drift detection
- Event correlation engine
- Auto-remediation with runbook mapping
- SLO budget management

### Analytics Service (services/analytics/)
- Rule-based anomaly detection with safe expression evaluation
- Cohort analysis with multi-metric aggregation
- Decision engine with credit budget constraints
- Narrative report generation

### Codex Governance (services/codex/)
- 82+ governance principles (entries)
- Codex Pantheon with 48+ agent archetypes
- Manifesto defining ethical framework

## Integration Points
- AIops → infra.blackroad.systems (blackroad-os-infra)
- Analytics → core.blackroad.systems (blackroad-os-core)
- Codex → operator.blackroad.systems (blackroad-os-operator)

🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code)

Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
2025-11-29 13:39:08 -06:00

1.2 KiB

Codex 21 — Conformal Risk Control — Errors You Can Budget

Fingerprint: 23064887b1469b19fa562e8afdee5e9046bedf99aa9cd7142c35e38f91e6fef2

Aim

Guarantee bounded error rates online without assuming a stationary data distribution.

Core

  • Define a nonconformity measure (s(x)) and maintain a threshold (q_\alpha) such that (\Pr(s(x_{\text{new}}) \le q_\alpha) \ge 1 - \alpha).
  • Abstain or defer decisions when (s(x) > q_\alpha) to keep risk within budget.
  • Continuously recalibrate thresholds on sliding windows to track drift.

Runbook

  1. Calibrate nonconformity scores over a recent window and maintain online quantiles.
  2. Gate automated actions on conformal acceptance; route abstentions to human or slower control paths.
  3. Recalibrate thresholds upon drift alarms or when error audits exceed tolerances.

Telemetry

  • Empirical error rates versus target (\alpha).
  • Abstain rates and downstream resolution times.
  • Calibration lag and drift detection statistics.

Failsafes

  • Increase abstention thresholds when observed error rises.
  • Require secondary model agreement or manual oversight before resuming automatic decisions.

Tagline: Confidence with math-backed brakes.